Preseason Rankings
Arkansas Little Rock
Sun Belt
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.3#127
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace71.0#112
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.3#116
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.5% 17.9% 9.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.8% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.5
.500 or above 72.6% 76.9% 50.0%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 81.7% 67.9%
Conference Champion 19.7% 21.2% 11.9%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 1.4% 3.6%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.1%
First Round16.3% 17.6% 9.3%
Second Round3.2% 3.6% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 1.0% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Prairie View (Neutral) - 84.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 56 - 8
Quad 49 - 215 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 302   Prairie View W 81-70 84%    
  Nov 27, 2020 84   UNC Greensboro L 71-75 34%    
  Nov 30, 2020 90   Duquesne L 73-77 37%    
  Dec 02, 2020 124   Winthrop L 80-81 50%    
  Dec 04, 2020 82   Western Kentucky L 74-79 35%    
  Dec 06, 2020 285   Central Arkansas W 88-76 87%    
  Dec 21, 2020 135   @ Missouri St. L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 01, 2021 156   Texas Arlington W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 02, 2021 156   Texas Arlington W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 08, 2021 185   @ Louisiana W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 09, 2021 185   @ Louisiana W 80-79 52%    
  Jan 15, 2021 143   Texas St. W 72-68 63%    
  Jan 16, 2021 143   Texas St. W 72-68 64%    
  Jan 22, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 23, 2021 156   @ Texas Arlington L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 29, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 76-64 84%    
  Jan 30, 2021 278   Louisiana Monroe W 76-64 84%    
  Feb 05, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 06, 2021 143   @ Texas St. L 69-71 44%    
  Feb 10, 2021 219   @ Arkansas St. W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 13, 2021 219   Arkansas St. W 79-70 78%    
  Feb 19, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 20, 2021 278   @ Louisiana Monroe W 73-67 69%    
  Feb 26, 2021 185   Louisiana W 83-76 71%    
  Feb 27, 2021 185   Louisiana W 83-76 71%    
Projected Record 15 - 10 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 1.8 3.7 5.3 4.8 2.7 1.0 19.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.7 5.0 4.9 2.7 0.8 0.1 16.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 2.7 5.1 3.5 1.3 0.2 13.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.8 2.9 0.7 0.1 11.1 4th
5th 0.4 2.1 4.1 2.6 0.7 0.1 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 3.5 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.1 2.2 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.0 1.9 0.3 0.0 5.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 1.5 0.3 4.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 1.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.3 5.2 7.1 8.4 9.5 11.2 11.7 11.0 10.0 8.2 5.6 2.8 1.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0 0.1
17-1 95.5% 2.7    2.4 0.3
16-2 85.5% 4.8    3.5 1.2 0.0
15-3 65.2% 5.3    3.4 1.7 0.2 0.0
14-4 37.1% 3.7    1.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.1% 1.8    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.7% 19.7 12.4 5.7 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 100.0% 99.2% 0.8% 9.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 2.8% 97.2% 94.7% 2.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.1 48.0%
16-2 5.6% 82.0% 78.8% 3.2% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.1 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.0 15.2%
15-3 8.2% 56.1% 53.9% 2.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.6 4.7%
14-4 10.0% 26.1% 25.3% 0.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 7.4 1.1%
13-5 11.0% 8.0% 7.7% 0.4% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.1 0.4%
12-6 11.7% 0.9% 0.8% 0.1% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.1%
11-7 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.2
10-8 9.5% 9.5
9-9 8.4% 8.4
8-10 7.1% 7.1
7-11 5.2% 5.2
6-12 3.3% 3.3
5-13 2.4% 2.4
4-14 1.4% 1.4
3-15 0.7% 0.7
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 16.5% 16.0% 0.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.1 3.1 5.5 3.7 1.3 0.3 83.5 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 4.4 6.6 9.1 14.9 29.8 14.0 9.9 8.3 0.8 6.6